Prime Picks: UFC 314 ‘Volkanovski vs. Lopes’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday gives the fans what they want with this pay-per-view offering in Miami. Multiple championship bouts for the sake of having several titles on the line can clog up a show, but this 13-fight offering is lean, mean and primed for thrilling results. The betting options are equally exciting, with choice underdogs worth pursuing and a handful of favorites where one can slam the lever down. Join the UFC 314 edition of Prime Picks, as we kick in the door of the Kaseya Center to make some scratch, anchored by an unusual but fruitful themed parlay with optimal returns.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Of all the lines one could take across the main card of UFC 314, this prop bet seemed the most likely to hit relative to its odds. There are a handful of suitable moneylines on the billing that are choice, as well, but instead of choosing a victor, we choose violence. With finish rates of 93% for Krylov and 79% for Reyes, plus 10 stoppage losses in their 13 combined defeats, this light heavyweight encounter should not likely hear the final bell. Luckily for those that pursue this option, these fighters tend to come out like they are shot out a proverbial cannon, active and hyper-aggressive no matter where the fight takes place.

On the feet, both men present as high-volume strikers with solid if not above-average power in their weight categories. They like to trust their respective chins and wade into the frenzy, which works to their disadvantage against the elite of the elite. Likely due to situational matchups, Krylov has gone to decision in four of his last seven outings, but Reyes is not the type that will likely drag him into deep water. After all, Reyes catapulted himself up the division in a hurry with three first-round knockouts, and needing 103 seconds to blaze through Chris Weidman did not hurt. Krylov, formerly known as “Al Capone” and now going by “The Miner,” does not fully embody that nickname, as he rarely needs to dig deep to overcome adversity or push the pace beyond the 10th minute. Instead, he either attacks with all his might or gets blasted and plays jiu-jitsu until he catches something or gets put away. It’s kill or be killed, making this an excellent option at -160 an excellent.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Paddy Pimblett (-147)

On paper, the mop-haired Pimblett has not faced anyone with near the intensity or firepower that even a shopworn Michael Chandler brings to the table. Before this co-headliner, the hardest-swinging adversary placed in front of Pimblett is either the glass cannon Julian Erosa or the fading Bobby Green—and both celebrate knockout rates of around 35%. On a punch-for-punch basis, few at 155 pounds can match Chandler, even at the tender age of 38 going on 39. When “The Baddy” cleanly absorbs one of Chandler’s overhand rise cruise missiles, his expression and strategy will likely change significantly.

Over the years, few have thoroughly and completely handled the NCAA All-American wrestler out of the University at Missouri on the mat. The one submission defeat on the ledger of the ex-Bellator MMA great came not against arguably the greatest grappler the company has seen in Charles Oliveira but after he had his face smashed in by Dustin Poirier. One glaring weakness jumps off the page for Pimblett: He is exceptionally hittable, absorbing 60% of the strikes hurled at him. Far from a magnificent wrestler himself, Pimblett instead likes to rely on trips, throws, scrambles and other ways to force the fight down compared to a simple snatch single or more traditional takedown. When the fight hits the canvas, he does transform into someone who will hunt for a submission until he is blue in the face. Unless the time is truly up for Chandler, there are better bets to place on this card than Pimblett.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Jim Miller (+575)

Much like a motivated B.J. Penn, Chuck Liddell with that look in his eye, sea-level Cain Velasquez or horsemeat Alistair Overeem, Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller or post-Lyme disease Miller has reached mythical MMA status. Remarkably, the submission magician—this is a man who landed a kneebar on Charles Oliveira—has only recently discovered in the last few years that he has exceptional pop in his punches. Whether it is due to “old man strength” in that the New Jersey native is fast approaching his 42nd birthday or just because of a combination of steady diet and proper exercise, Miller’s lethality has increased significantly as he has aged. Chase Hooper has clear, distinct ways to win, and he has grown by leaps and bounds as he fills out his 25-year-old frame, but at this line, it is Miller or bust.

Unlike some other competitors referenced in prior breakdowns, there are 155-pounders on the roster that Hooper should be a -900 favorite against. According to the lines, Miller is one of those names, even if that might sound outrageous. After all, Miller has won three of his last four, all by stoppage, while proving he has not regressed to become a two-minute man. Those to get past him on his current run have either put up more numbers than the elder statesman, like Green and Alexander Hernandez, or they have controlled him so closely that he could not get anything off. While Hooper is an excellent topside grappler, he is far from a Jon Fitch-esque smothering type who never leaves you room to breathe. He prefers submission over position, and while he could catch Miller in something, it is all about the disparity. With how many ways Miller can pull off the upset, he’s even more of a live underdog than some of the names hinted at above.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Michael Chandler (+127)

Patricio Freire (+165)

Total Odds: +502

Breaking away from the norm, we instead offer two picks in a suave, sophisticated gimmick parlay for the Bellator faithful. In the section where we typically suggest not playing a particular bet, we suggested avoiding Pimblett on this event—not because he is in a no-win scenario but because the juice is not likely worth the squeeze on his end. When playing the MMA math game, both fighters share a common victory over Tony Ferguson. However, Chandler kicked Ferguson to the moon while “El Cucuy” was riding a three-fight skid, and Pimblett had to settle for a ho-hum decision against the grizzled, ailing man who had by then lost six straight. Otherwise, strength of schedule is so far ahead for “Iron Mike” compared to the Cage Warriors vet that it would make one’s head spin. While Chandler has not risen to the occasion in each of those outings against the Top 5 at lightweight, pitting Pimblett against Poirier would seem like a crime scene waiting to happen.

The first half of this accumulator is still on the main card, so bettors will have markedly fewer chances during the evening to turn things around should this go awry. Like Chandler, Freire is aging and struggling of late, although he did rebound a year ago with a solid performance against Jeremy Kennedy. That same “JBC” took the unbeaten Movlid Khaybulaev to the wire one week ago in the Professional Fighters League, arguably beating him in a battle best left discussed elsewhere. “Pitbull” remains as fearless as ever from a competitive standpoint, already gunning for a championship opportunity if he picks up a win over Yair Rodriguez. If he follows the path that he discussed in a recent interview, Freire can avoid the traps set up by “El Pantera” and run roughshod over him on the floor. It might be fraught with danger and almost certainly should have been scheduled for five rounds, but as long as the Brazilian gets his hand raised, he starts the two-piece off strong.