Preview: UFC Seattle Prelims

Light Heavyweights

Modestas Bukauskas (16-6, 4-4 UFC) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (11-1, 0-1 UFC)

ODDS: Bukauskas (-305), Cerqueira (+245)

Bukauskas has mostly had a successful UFC comeback, though it’s still unclear if “The Baltic Gladiator” has much upside. Bukauskas had a lot of hype ahead of his UFC debut in 2020, owing to a highly successful regional career. However, there were some issues that would come home to roost against better competition. Bukauskas was the sort of physical talent who could take his time and overwhelm regional opponents, but UFC-level athletes had little trouble marching him down and causing plenty of damage. That included Khalil Rountree, who inflicted a knee injury upon Bukauskas that marked the end of his first UFC stint. To his credit, Bukauskas retooled and made his way back to the UFC in short order upon his recovery, and he’s a much more effective fighter at this point, managing to balance output and patience in a way that has allowed him to coast past the bottom half of the UFC roster. Given his 2023 loss to Vitor Petrino, there’s still a sense that Bukauskas needs an opponent to consent to his own terms to an extent and that opponents with enough speed and willpower to track him down can find a lot of opportunity. That’s where Cerqueira comes in, as most of the film available on the Brazilian shows him to be someone content marching his opponents down and hunting for the knockout. Cerqueira is large and ponderous in doing so, which makes him feel like more of a heavyweight, but his UFC debut showed that he certainly doesn’t have heavyweight-level durability. Ibo Aslan was quickly able to stun Cerqueira and overwhelm him for a stoppage. Bukauskas doesn’t figure to be able to repeat that trick, so Cerqueira should be able to get off to a strong start. It’s certainly possible that Cerqueira is unable to find an early knockout and just winds up tiring himself out without a backup plan, but the call is that he can get things done here. The pick is Cerqueira via first-round knockout.

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